FOMC Meeting Minutes; CFTC vs. States on Prediction Markets; Upstart’s New Product

Fed meeting minutes show splits on rate policy. CFTC and states battle on prediction markets. X plans stock and crypto trading features. Upstart announces new revolving credit product. Bridge gets conditional approval of trust charter application.

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FOMC Meeting Minutes

Minutes from the Fed’s most recent rate-setting meeting show officials have little stomach for further rate cuts. The read out indicated that, overall, members of the FOMC are hoping to see additional signs that inflation is under control before further rate cuts. The consumer price index in January showed prices up 2.4% vs. the year prior, still firmly above the Fed’s long-term 2% target. Meanwhile, participants view risks to the labor market as having moderated. According to the meeting minutes, “The vast majority of participants judged that downside risks to employment had moderated in recent months while the risk of more persistent inflation remained.” Two officials broke with the consensus position in favor of voting for a rate cut. But, at the same time, the meeting minutes show that other Fed officials favored added language to the central bank’s statement that would characterize the likelihood of a future rate cut or rate increase as evenly balanced.

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he believes there’s a path to further rate cuts this year, if further progress is made in getting inflation under control. Goolsbee argued that, if inflationary pressure linked to tariffs is a one-off change in price levels, the Fed may have more room to maneuver on rates.

In other macro news, orders for business equipment increased in December by more than was anticipated. The aggregate value of capital goods, which roughly tracks investment in commercial equipment, jumped 0.6% in December after growing by a revised 0.8% in November.

CFTC & States Battle Over Prediction Markets

Legal battles over who gets to regulate prediction markets have been heating up lately. While the Commodities Futures Trading Commission has historically overseen events contracts, the legal structure used by most prediction markets, as players in the space have grown dramatically, particularly by offering events contracts linked to sporting events, other stakeholders have begun to challenge the extent of the CFTC’s jurisdiction. States that don’t allow sportsbetting are also pushing back on, what they argue, is illegal gambling in their jurisdictions. The issue drew additional media attention last week, with CFTC chair Selig weighing in in support of prediction markets, arguing that the CFTC’s authority to regulate events contracts preempts states’ attempts to prohibit certain types of prediction market activity. The CFTC has also weighed in in court, filing an amicus brief in support of Crypto.com in a legal dispute with the Nevada Gaming Control Board.

X Plans Stock and Crypto Trading

X, the site once known as Twitter, is moving forward with plans to offer stock and crypto trading. The company’s head of product, Nikita Bier, said that the site will enable users to interact with “smart cashtags,” or ticker symbols (eg, $TSLA or $SOFI) and carry out trades directly from their timeline. Bier said the capability would be launching in “a couple of weeks.” The prospect of trading capabilities would represent a step towards X-owner Elon Musk’s stated vision of turning the service into an “everything app.”

Upstart Announces Revolving Cash Line Product

AI-powered lender Upstart announced the upcoming launch of its new “Cash Line” product. Users can qualify for revolving lines as small as $200 and up to $5,000. The uniquely structured product carries a monthly membership fee of $10 for lines up to $500, with draws of over $500 carrying an APR between 5% and 36%. Upstart cofounder and CEO Dave Girouard commented on the news, saying, “Cash Line is Upstart’s next great leap toward always-on credit for every American. We are rapidly building a one-stop shop for all flavors of credit where guaranteed best rates are available 24/7 in a matter of minutes. Cash Line offers reliable access to money in the moments that matter the most.”

Bridge Gets Conditional Approval on OCC Trust Charter

Bridge, the stablecoin infrastructure subsidiary of Stripe, has had its application to form a national trust bank conditionally approved. Bridge is one of numerous crypto- and stablecoin-focused companies that are seeking to form OCC national trust banks, at least in part to facilitate coming into compliance with the requirements of the GENIUS Act, which will regulate “permitted payment stablecoin issuers.” If Bridge receives final approval to form a trust bank, it intends to use the entity to handle digital asset custody, stablecoin issuance, reserve management, and payment orchestration.